Spread: Pistons (-21.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (40%) · Wizards at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons1¢Wizards99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$96.36

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 98.6¢

+15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons1%

Wizards99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards2 traders

Total Value$684.03

Total Shares715

Combined PnL+$117.66

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$27.58

Total Shares451

Combined PnL-$21.3

Wizards — 40%Pistons — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wizards) and the top 1000 (7 on Pistons) disagree here.

ctrPistons 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Wizardsavg 89.1¢	$422.1	$462.15	+$40.05	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Wizardsavg 80¢	$2.2K	$221.89	+$77.61	54% 1122-947 (2069)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pistonsavg 15.2¢	$347.87	$108.55	-$238.08	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 15.2¢	$303.06	$69.96	-$237.92
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 96.9¢	$38.75	$38.59	-$0.16
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 92¢	$112.08	$98.53	-$13.56	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 92¢	$65.66	$65.67	+$0
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 11.3¢	$46.42	$32.86	-$13.56
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Pistonsavg 10.5¢	$112.78	$96.11	-$16.67	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 10.5¢	$86.18	$65.52	-$20.66
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 80¢	$26.6	$30.59	+$3.99
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 11¢	$30.03	$21.84	-$8.19	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 8.5¢	$11.2	$4.62	-$6.58	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 16.7¢	$7.65	$1.12	-$6.53	49% 1475-1523 (2998)

RN1

Wizards

Invested

$422.1

Value

$462.15

PnL

+$40.05

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Wizards

Invested

$2,215.78

Value

$221.89

PnL

+$77.61

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$347.87

Value

$108.55

PnL

-$238.08

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Pistons$303.0615.2¢-$237.92

Wizards$38.7596.9¢-$0.16

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$112.08

Value

$98.53

PnL

-$13.56

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Wizards$65.6692¢+$0

Pistons$46.4211.3¢-$13.56

takeormakeARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$112.78

Value

$96.11

PnL

-$16.67

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

Both legs:

Pistons$86.1810.5¢-$20.66

Wizards$26.680¢+$3.99

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$30.03

Value

$21.84

PnL

-$8.19

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$11.2

Value

$4.62

PnL

-$6.58

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$7.65

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$6.53

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wizards) and the top 1000 (7 on Pistons) disagree here.

ctrPistons 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.