Spread: Pistons (-1.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (63%) · Pistons at 79¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons79¢Wizards21¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$116.21

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 78.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons79%

Wizards22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,646

Combined PnL+$30.56

Wizards3 traders

Total Value$574.76

Total Shares2,689

Combined PnL+$85.65

Pistons — 63%Wizards — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPistons 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Pistonsavg 83¢	$830	$800	-$30	50% 306-311 (617)
RN1	Pistonsavg 70.5¢	$612.29	$681.38	+$69.09	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Wizardsavg 18.9¢	$494.48	$562.65	+$68.17	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
CUTJALENHURTS	Pistonsavg 83¢	$501.27	$501.27	-$0	52% 2603-2444 (5047)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 28.5¢	$527.05	$404.75	-$122.3	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 28.5¢	$377.95	$258.37	-$119.57
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 82¢	$149.1	$146.38	-$2.73
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 83.4¢	$289.54	$270.52	-$10.18	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 83.4¢	$212.34	$203.72	-$8.62
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 20¢	$66.8	$66.8	-$1.56
TA takeormake	Pistonsavg 85.8¢	$142.44	$130.31	-$12.13	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 14¢	$90.04	$6.67	+$18.76	54% 1122-947 (2069)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Pistonsavg 73¢	$31.04	$6.64	+$3.6	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 21¢	$6.72	$5.44	-$1.28	49% 1103-1157 (2260)

Anon455

Pistons

Invested

$830

Value

$800

PnL

-$30

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

RN1

Pistons

Invested

$612.29

Value

$681.38

PnL

+$69.09

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

FlaznorpCTR

Wizards

Invested

$494.48

Value

$562.65

PnL

+$68.17

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

CUTJALENHURTS

Pistons

Invested

$501.27

Value

$501.27

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

2603-2444 (5047)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$527.05

Value

$404.75

PnL

-$122.3

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Wizards$377.9528.5¢-$119.57

Pistons$149.182¢-$2.73

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$289.54

Value

$270.52

PnL

-$10.18

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Both legs:

Pistons$212.3483.4¢-$8.62

Wizards$66.820¢-$1.56

takeormake

Pistons

Invested

$142.44

Value

$130.31

PnL

-$12.13

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$90.04

Value

$6.67

PnL

+$18.76

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

ferdinand2<$100

Pistons

Invested

$31.04

Value

$6.64

PnL

+$3.6

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$6.72

Value

$5.44

PnL

-$1.28

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPistons 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.