Spread: Pistons (-19.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (78%) · Wizards at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons5¢Wizards95¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$25.14

Smart Money Entry

87.3¢ → 95.5¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons5%

Wizards96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,149

Combined PnL+$164.19

Pistons2 traders

Total Value$103.8

Total Shares1,231

Combined PnL-$139.05

Wizards — 78%Pistons — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPistons 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Wizardsavg 95¢	$2.0K	$937.01	+$45	54% 1122-947 (2069)
FO forecastication4	Wizardsavg 78¢	$400.92	$462.6	+$61.68	29% 113-278 (391)
38 38791873984189	Wizardsavg 77¢	$243.32	$216.91	+$33.58	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
65 6512395314597884	Wizardsavg 86.8¢	$177.12	$183.74	+$6.62	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pistonsavg 10.5¢	$1.2K	$161.83	-$58.95	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 10.5¢	$210.8	$90.23	-$120.58
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 89.3¢	$66.96	$71.6	+$61.62
SU suntori	Wizardsavg 87¢	$131.42	$144.26	+$12.84	46% 1805-2097 (3902)
LI LimousinCTR	Pistonsavg 22.4¢	$197.21	$88	-$109.21	34% 685-1328 (2013)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wizardsavg 77¢	$24.64	$28.8	+$4.16	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 13¢	$45.64	$15.8	-$29.84	52% 411-380 (791)
RN1<$100	Wizardsavg 84¢	$4.2	$4.5	+$0.3	56% 4632-3618 (8250)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Wizards

Invested

$1,999.56

Value

$937.01

PnL

+$45

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

forecastication4

Wizards

Invested

$400.92

Value

$462.6

PnL

+$61.68

Record

29%

113-278 (391)

38791873984189

Wizards

Invested

$243.32

Value

$216.91

PnL

+$33.58

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

6512395314597884

Wizards

Invested

$177.12

Value

$183.74

PnL

+$6.62

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$1,170.78

Value

$161.83

PnL

-$58.95

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Pistons$210.810.5¢-$120.58

Wizards$66.9689.3¢+$61.62

suntori

Wizards

Invested

$131.42

Value

$144.26

PnL

+$12.84

Record

46%

1805-2097 (3902)

LimousinCTR

Pistons

Invested

$197.21

Value

$88

PnL

-$109.21

Record

34%

685-1328 (2013)

Pan9X<$100

Wizards

Invested

$24.64

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$4.16

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$45.64

Value

$15.8

PnL

-$29.84

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

RN1<$100

Wizards

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPistons 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.