Spread: Pistons (-17.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (71%) · Wizards at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons8¢Wizards92¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$250.56

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 92.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons8%

Wizards93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,238

Combined PnL+$252.16

Pistons2 traders

Total Value$8.1

Total Shares87

Combined PnL-$1.6

Wizards — 71%Pistons — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pistons) and the top 1000 (8 on Wizards) disagree here.

ctrPistons 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Wizards 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Wizardsavg 86.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$88.46	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
RN1	Wizardsavg 80¢	$360.8	$417.18	+$56.38	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Wizardsavg 82.9¢	$1.4K	$273.95	+$105.45	54% 1122-947 (2069)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 20¢	$175.25	$153.44	-$21.81	50% 306-311 (617)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 81¢	$85.05	$90.3	+$5.25
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 20¢	$90.2	$63.14	-$27.06
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Pistonsavg 21.4¢	$172.74	$74.2	-$97.36	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 21.4¢	$146.85	$51.54	-$97.76
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 90.9¢	$22.26	$22.66	+$0.4
FE ferdinand2<$100	Wizardsavg 90.1¢	$37.24	$21.84	-$0.4	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
FO forecastication4<$100	Wizardsavg 74¢	$14.06	$16.34	+$2.28	29% 113-278 (391)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 7¢	$4.76	$5.44	+$0.68	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 26¢	$4.94	$2.66	-$2.28	34% 690-1345 (2035)

Flaznorp

Wizards

Invested

$1,244.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$88.46

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

RN1

Wizards

Invested

$360.8

Value

$417.18

PnL

+$56.38

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Wizards

Invested

$1,364.75

Value

$273.95

PnL

+$105.45

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Anon455ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$175.25

Value

$153.44

PnL

-$21.81

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

Both legs:

Wizards$85.0581¢+$5.25

Pistons$90.220¢-$27.06

takeormakeARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$172.74

Value

$74.2

PnL

-$97.36

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

Both legs:

Pistons$146.8521.4¢-$97.76

Wizards$22.2690.9¢+$0.4

ferdinand2<$100

Wizards

Invested

$37.24

Value

$21.84

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

forecastication4<$100

Wizards

Invested

$14.06

Value

$16.34

PnL

+$2.28

Record

29%

113-278 (391)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.44

PnL

+$0.68

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$4.94

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$2.28

Record

34%

690-1345 (2035)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pistons) and the top 1000 (8 on Wizards) disagree here.

ctrPistons 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Wizards 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.