Spread: Pistons (-13.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (44%) · Wizards at 73¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons28¢Wizards72¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$62.86

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 72.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons28%

Wizards73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,504

Combined PnL+$11.1

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$493.37

Total Shares1,490

Combined PnL-$73.96

Wizards — 44%Pistons — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Wizardsavg 72.2¢	$519.41	$521.28	+$1.87	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
SU SunlineTicker	Wizardsavg 59¢	$330.69	$344.7	+$14.01	70% 1697-734 (2431)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 62¢	$254.14	$278.58	+$24.45	54% 1122-947 (2069)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 62¢	$131.44	$153.7	+$22.26
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 27¢	$122.7	$124.88	+$2.19
SU suntoriCTR	Pistonsavg 40.9¢	$243.8	$229.26	-$14.54	46% 1757-2031 (3788)
65 6512395314597884	Wizardsavg 76¢	$155.02	$149.87	-$5.15	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
TA takeormakeCTR	Pistonsavg 32.8¢	$160.88	$134.75	-$26.13	58% 3338-2406 (5744)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pistonsavg 38¢	$125.76	$92.4	-$32.48	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 40¢	$31.2	$30.03	-$1.17	47% 564-628 (1192)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wizardsavg 60¢	$15	$15.38	+$0.38	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 37¢	$6.57	$6.92	+$0.35	49% 303-310 (613)

RN1

Wizards

Invested

$519.41

Value

$521.28

PnL

+$1.87

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

SunlineTicker

Wizards

Invested

$330.69

Value

$344.7

PnL

+$14.01

Record

70%

1697-734 (2431)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$254.14

Value

$278.58

PnL

+$24.45

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Both legs:

Wizards$131.4462¢+$22.26

Pistons$122.727¢+$2.19

suntoriCTR

Pistons

Invested

$243.8

Value

$229.26

PnL

-$14.54

Record

46%

1757-2031 (3788)

6512395314597884

Wizards

Invested

$155.02

Value

$149.87

PnL

-$5.15

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

takeormakeCTR

Pistons

Invested

$160.88

Value

$134.75

PnL

-$26.13

Record

58%

3338-2406 (5744)

FlaznorpCTR

Pistons

Invested

$125.76

Value

$92.4

PnL

-$32.48

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$31.2

Value

$30.03

PnL

-$1.17

Record

47%

564-628 (1192)

Pan9X<$100

Wizards

Invested

$15

Value

$15.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

Anon455CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$6.57

Value

$6.92

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.