Spread: Pistons (-12.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (22%) · Wizards at 79¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons22¢Wizards78¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 22%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$34.16

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 78.5¢

+21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons22%

Wizards79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,839

Combined PnL+$484.68

Pistons7 traders

Total Value$989.13

Total Shares4,197

Combined PnL-$518.84

Wizards — 22%Pistons — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wizards) and the top 1000 (9 on Pistons) disagree here.

ctrPistons 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Wizardsavg 65.2¢	$2.2K	$2.7K	+$456.68	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pistonsavg 22.5¢	$500	$477.52	-$22.48	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
65 6512395314597884	Wizardsavg 62¢	$248	$276	+$28	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Pistonsavg 36.5¢	$2.5K	$220.15	-$429.39	54% 1122-947 (2069)
AN Anon455CTR	Pistonsavg 29¢	$144.17	$153.37	+$9.2	50% 306-311 (617)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 34¢	$68	$43	-$25	52% 411-380 (791)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 47¢	$57.11	$37.67	-$19.44	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 50¢	$49.5	$30.69	-$18.81	42% 331-451 (782)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 47.4¢	$39.64	$26.73	-$12.91	49% 1103-1157 (2260)

RN1

Wizards

Invested

$2,242.57

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$456.68

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

FlaznorpCTR

Pistons

Invested

$500

Value

$477.52

PnL

-$22.48

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

6512395314597884

Wizards

Invested

$248

Value

$276

PnL

+$28

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Pistons

Invested

$2,473.5

Value

$220.15

PnL

-$429.39

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Anon455CTR

Pistons

Invested

$144.17

Value

$153.37

PnL

+$9.2

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$68

Value

$43

PnL

-$25

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$57.11

Value

$37.67

PnL

-$19.44

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$49.5

Value

$30.69

PnL

-$18.81

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$39.64

Value

$26.73

PnL

-$12.91

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wizards) and the top 1000 (9 on Pistons) disagree here.

ctrPistons 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.