Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 239.5

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (53%) · Over at 74¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$492.98

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 73.5¢

+42% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares8,632

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,868

Combined PnL-$916.54

Over — 53%Under — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 53¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$822.89	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
AN Anon455	Overavg 50.7¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$456.74	49% 430-445 (875)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 46.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$53.66	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 63.3¢	$1.1K	$970.16	+$33.48	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.3¢	$605.38	$674.61	+$69.22
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.2¢	$323.1	$295.55	-$35.75
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 48.1¢	$779	$469.73	-$309.26	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
TA takeormake	Overavg 57.9¢	$313.19	$387.05	+$73.86	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 75¢	$697.5	$344.1	-$353.4	51% 639-619 (1258)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Overavg 40¢	$200	$267.5	+$67.5	40% 632-954 (1586)
SE sentrio	Overavg 52.4¢	$231.45	$227.64	-$3.81	41% 1108-1568 (2676)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 47.8¢	$330.34	$183.15	-$147.19	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 47.5¢	$213.67	$157.24	+$2.49	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
NO NotJump	Overavg 54¢	$134.99	$136.24	+$1.25	51% 970-935 (1905)
SU suntoriCTR	Underavg 40¢	$190.47	$135.71	-$54.76	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 48.3¢	$198.2	$108.71	-$89.49	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 49.1¢	$94.18	$81.47	-$12.71	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$57.67	$35.73	-$21.94	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 68.7¢	$27.5	$24.67	+$1.31	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 33.3¢	$58.32	$9.56	+$5.85	50% 1827-1860 (3687)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$2,670.1

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$822.89

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$1,645.91

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$456.74

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$1,205.38

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$53.66

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,114.78

Value

$970.16

PnL

+$33.48

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Over$605.3863.3¢+$69.22

Under$323.132.2¢-$35.75

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$779

Value

$469.73

PnL

-$309.26

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$313.19

Value

$387.05

PnL

+$73.86

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$697.5

Value

$344.1

PnL

-$353.4

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$267.5

PnL

+$67.5

Record

40%

632-954 (1586)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$231.45

Value

$227.64

PnL

-$3.81

Record

41%

1108-1568 (2676)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$330.34

Value

$183.15

PnL

-$147.19

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$213.67

Value

$157.24

PnL

+$2.49

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

NotJump

Over

Invested

$134.99

Value

$136.24

PnL

+$1.25

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

suntoriCTR

Under

Invested

$190.47

Value

$135.71

PnL

-$54.76

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$198.2

Value

$108.71

PnL

-$89.49

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$94.18

Value

$81.47

PnL

-$12.71

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.67

Value

$35.73

PnL

-$21.94

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$27.5

Value

$24.67

PnL

+$1.31

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.32

Value

$9.56

PnL

+$5.85

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.