Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 233.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 67¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
$1.2K
-$21.14
48.6¢ → 66.5¢
+37% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 67%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 52¢ | $523.7 | $554.5 | +$30.8 | 49% 4276-4505 (8781) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 48¢ | $480 | $450 | -$30 | 55% 1734-1418 (3152) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 50¢ | $115.75 | $104.18 | -$11.58 | 50% 2654-2620 (5274) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $79.2 | $71.28 | -$7.92 | 47% 3487-3859 (7346) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $29.98 | $27.53 | -$2.45 | 49% 430-443 (873) |
Invested
$523.7
Value
$554.5
PnL
+$30.8
Record
49%
4276-4505 (8781)
Invested
$480
Value
$450
PnL
-$30
Record
55%
1734-1418 (3152)
Invested
$115.75
Value
$104.18
PnL
-$11.58
Record
50%
2654-2620 (5274)
Invested
$79.2
Value
$71.28
PnL
-$7.92
Record
47%
3487-3859 (7346)
Invested
$29.98
Value
$27.53
PnL
-$2.45
Record
49%
430-443 (873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.