Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 231.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 59¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$58.8

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 58.5¢

+13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$802.42

Total Shares1,561

Combined PnL-$5.22

Under2 traders

Total Value$205.84

Total Shares564

Combined PnL-$53.58

Over — 80%Under — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 54¢	$260	$267.22	+$7.22	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 46¢	$254.13	$201.65	-$52.48	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
TA takeormake	Overavg 54.3¢	$190.62	$200.07	+$9.45	57% 3585-2663 (6248)
MI micky456	Overavg 50¢	$219	$194.91	-$24.09	47% 589-654 (1243)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 44.2¢	$80.26	$80.88	+$0.62	56% 3745-2909 (6654)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 54¢	$38.34	$39.41	+$1.06	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 54¢	$16.2	$16.65	+$0.45	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$5.29	$4.2	-$1.09	48% 2318-2517 (4835)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.47	$2.5	+$0.03	53% 2030-1802 (3832)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 43¢	$0.75	$0.78	+$0.03	47% 1052-1201 (2253)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$260

Value

$267.22

PnL

+$7.22

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$254.13

Value

$201.65

PnL

-$52.48

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$190.62

Value

$200.07

PnL

+$9.45

Record

57%

3585-2663 (6248)

micky456

Over

Invested

$219

Value

$194.91

PnL

-$24.09

Record

47%

589-654 (1243)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$80.26

Value

$80.88

PnL

+$0.62

Record

56%

3745-2909 (6654)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$38.34

Value

$39.41

PnL

+$1.06

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$16.2

Value

$16.65

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.29

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$1.09

Record

48%

2318-2517 (4835)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$2.47

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

2030-1802 (3832)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.78

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

1052-1201 (2253)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.