Spread: Heat (-7.5)

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (100%) · Heat at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Heat98¢Pistons2¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$345.47

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 97.5¢

+66% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat98%

Pistons3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat10 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,612

Combined PnL+$345.47

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Heatavg 84.9¢	$1.1K	$762.91	-$302.59	57% 3595-2677 (6272)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 84.9¢	$581.9	$592.53	+$10.63
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 38.3¢	$483.6	$170.38	-$313.21
FL Flaznorp	Heatavg 62¢	$757.93	$332.2	+$188.4	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
TO topdogbigboi	Heatavg 54.9¢	$204.59	$322.48	+$117.89	38% 1351-2180 (3531)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Heatavg 56.6¢	$162.31	$164.84	+$2.53	49% 573-601 (1174)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Heatavg 55.7¢	$411.2	$155.98	+$2.01	55% 1779-1463 (3242)
PA Pan9X	Heatavg 67.2¢	$201.22	$114.16	+$32.85	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
LR lryyy<$100	Heatavg 57¢	$50.16	$51.04	+$0.88	46% 884-1056 (1940)
38 38791873984189<$100	Heatavg 51.3¢	$23.58	$34.84	+$11.27	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
RN1<$100	Heatavg 78¢	$42.25	$34.4	-$7.85	55% 5758-4807 (10565)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Heatavg 62¢	$33.88	$26.04	-$2.84	48% 2348-2563 (4911)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Heatavg 57¢	$18.84	$19.17	+$0.33	50% 2696-2676 (5372)

takeormakeARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$1,065.5

Value

$762.91

PnL

-$302.59

Record

57%

3595-2677 (6272)

Both legs:

Heat$581.984.9¢+$10.63

Pistons$483.638.3¢-$313.21

Flaznorp

Heat

Invested

$757.93

Value

$332.2

PnL

+$188.4

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

topdogbigboi

Heat

Invested

$204.59

Value

$322.48

PnL

+$117.89

Record

38%

1351-2180 (3531)

CandleHammerDrums

Heat

Invested

$162.31

Value

$164.84

PnL

+$2.53

Record

49%

573-601 (1174)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Heat

Invested

$411.2

Value

$155.98

PnL

+$2.01

Record

55%

1779-1463 (3242)

Pan9X

Heat

Invested

$201.22

Value

$114.16

PnL

+$32.85

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

lryyy<$100

Heat

Invested

$50.16

Value

$51.04

PnL

+$0.88

Record

46%

884-1056 (1940)

38791873984189<$100

Heat

Invested

$23.58

Value

$34.84

PnL

+$11.27

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

RN1<$100

Heat

Invested

$42.25

Value

$34.4

PnL

-$7.85

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

ferdinand2<$100

Heat

Invested

$33.88

Value

$26.04

PnL

-$2.84

Record

48%

2348-2563 (4911)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Heat

Invested

$18.84

Value

$19.17

PnL

+$0.33

Record

50%

2696-2676 (5372)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.