Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pistons, while the market favors Heat (74%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Pistons (-7.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (50%) · Pistons at 26¢ · $77 held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Pistons
6
Pistons 50%
$76.96
-$2.52
Research grade
AvoidPistons at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Pistonsavg 40.8¢ | $49.62 | $46.82 | -$2.8 | 47% 1052-1201 (2253) |
MI micky456<$100 | Heatavg 62¢ | $11.16 | $11.07 | -$0.09 | 47% 589-654 (1243) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Pistonsavg 38¢ | $9.12 | $9.24 | +$0.12 | 56% 3745-2909 (6654) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Heatavg 62¢ | $3.72 | $3.69 | -$0.03 | 57% 3585-2663 (6248) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Heatavg 59¢ | $3.53 | $3.68 | +$0.15 | 49% 4276-4505 (8781) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Pistonsavg 37¢ | $2.33 | $2.46 | +$0.13 | 47% 3487-3859 (7346) |
Invested
$49.62
Value
$46.82
PnL
-$2.8
Record
47%
1052-1201 (2253)
Invested
$11.16
Value
$11.07
PnL
-$0.09
Record
47%
589-654 (1243)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$9.24
PnL
+$0.12
Record
56%
3745-2909 (6654)
Invested
$3.72
Value
$3.69
PnL
-$0.03
Record
57%
3585-2663 (6248)
Invested
$3.53
Value
$3.68
PnL
+$0.15
Record
49%
4276-4505 (8781)
Invested
$2.33
Value
$2.46
PnL
+$0.13
Record
47%
3487-3859 (7346)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.