Spread: Pistons (-1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (67%) · Heat at 86¢ · $216 held · ended Nov 15

Pistons14¢Heat86¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 67%

Total Value

$215.59

Combined PnL

-$3.61

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 86¢

+69% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons14%

Heat86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat6 traders

Total Value$135.89

Total Shares274

Combined PnL-$3.47

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$79.69

Total Shares171

Combined PnL-$0.13

Heat — 67%Pistons — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189<$100	Heatavg 50¢	$43	$36.98	-$6.02	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 60¢	$36	$34.2	-$1.8	51% 639-619 (1258)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 45¢	$32.73	$33.82	+$1.09	49% 430-445 (875)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Heatavg 71¢	$27.18	$33.31	+$6.13	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Heatavg 50¢	$31.39	$27	-$4.39	49% 572-596 (1168)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Heatavg 40¢	$24	$25.8	+$1.8	70% 1725-752 (2477)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 29¢	$11.1	$11.68	+$0.57	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
PA Pan9X<$100	Heatavg 50¢	$10	$8.6	-$1.4	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Heatavg 55.8¢	$3.79	$4.21	+$0.42	55% 1770-1448 (3218)

38791873984189<$100

Heat

Invested

$43

Value

$36.98

PnL

-$6.02

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$36

Value

$34.2

PnL

-$1.8

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

Anon455CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$32.73

Value

$33.82

PnL

+$1.09

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

Flaznorp<$100

Heat

Invested

$27.18

Value

$33.31

PnL

+$6.13

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Heat

Invested

$31.39

Value

$27

PnL

-$4.39

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

SunlineTicker<$100

Heat

Invested

$24

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$1.8

Record

70%

1725-752 (2477)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$11.1

Value

$11.68

PnL

+$0.57

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

Pan9X<$100

Heat

Invested

$10

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$1.4

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Heat

Invested

$3.79

Value

$4.21

PnL

+$0.42

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.