Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (91%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 245.5

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 9.5¢ · $414 held · ended Nov 15

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 100%

Total Value

$414.06

Combined PnL

$21.21

Smart Money Entry

28.2¢ → 9.5¢

-66% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 91%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$414.06

Total Shares1,377

Combined PnL+$21.21

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 28.1¢	$181.8	$206.99	+$25.19	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$45.76	$51.1	+$5.34	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 27.9¢	$164.06	$39.54	+$1.98	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 25.3¢	$37.19	$32.3	-$4.9	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 29.9¢	$31.35	$28.35	-$3	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$30	$27	-$3	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 27.6¢	$14.91	$14.64	-$0.27	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$7.39	$7.39	+$0	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 28.6¢	$13.52	$6.77	-$0.13	53% 1938-1717 (3655)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$181.8

Value

$206.99

PnL

+$25.19

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.76

Value

$51.1

PnL

+$5.34

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$164.06

Value

$39.54

PnL

+$1.98

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.19

Value

$32.3

PnL

-$4.9

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.35

Value

$28.35

PnL

-$3

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30

Value

$27

PnL

-$3

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.91

Value

$14.64

PnL

-$0.27

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.39

Value

$7.39

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.52

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 91%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.