Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 64¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$106.12

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 64¢

+37% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,171

Combined PnL+$247.54

Over4 traders

Total Value$301.44

Total Shares735

Combined PnL-$141.41

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 48¢	$480	$680	+$200	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
alpheclabs2	Underavg 47¢	$217.14	$237.93	+$20.79	46% 316-377 (693)
LI Limousin	Underavg 47¢	$145.03	$152.59	+$7.56	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 43¢	$132.14	$152.11	+$19.97	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 53.2¢	$1.6K	$140.09	-$70.32	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 50¢	$195.23	$124.83	-$70.4	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$21.4	$20.4	-$1	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$15.81	$16.12	+$0.31	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 38¢	$15.25	$15.45	+$0.2	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 42.9¢	$14.51	$13.01	-$1.5	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 48¢	$4.39	$4.49	+$0.09	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$3.2	+$0.7	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.2	$1.93	-$0.28	41% 708-1019 (1727)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$480

Value

$680

PnL

+$200

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

alpheclabs2

Under

Invested

$217.14

Value

$237.93

PnL

+$20.79

Record

46%

316-377 (693)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$145.03

Value

$152.59

PnL

+$7.56

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$132.14

Value

$152.11

PnL

+$19.97

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$1,579.61

Value

$140.09

PnL

-$70.32

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$195.23

Value

$124.83

PnL

-$70.4

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.4

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$1

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.81

Value

$16.12

PnL

+$0.31

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$15.25

Value

$15.45

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$14.51

Value

$13.01

PnL

-$1.5

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.49

PnL

+$0.09

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.7

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.28

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.