Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 54¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$88.09

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 54¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$680.51

Total Shares1,204

Combined PnL+$87.77

Over3 traders

Total Value$239.38

Total Shares763

Combined PnL-$175.86

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Underavg 48.1¢	$266.2	$301.62	+$35.42	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
VE Venusian	Underavg 47.8¢	$235.36	$268.27	+$32.91	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 50.7¢	$870.31	$232.52	-$172.45	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 45.7¢	$199.22	$213.51	+$14.29	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.7¢	$114.04	$118.58	+$4.54
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.1¢	$85.18	$94.94	+$9.76
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$160.14	$149.34	-$10.8	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.7¢	$71.85	$92.32	+$20.47
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$88.29	$57.02	-$31.27
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 55¢	$66	$82.8	+$16.8	65% 668-360 (1028)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 65.5¢	$25.3	$12.41	-$5.14	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 34.8¢	$7.77	$11.97	+$7.04	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$8.74	$5.89	-$2.85	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 54¢	$2.7	$3.45	+$0.75	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$1.53	$0.97	-$0.56	47% 3551-3935 (7486)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$266.2

Value

$301.62

PnL

+$35.42

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$235.36

Value

$268.27

PnL

+$32.91

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$870.31

Value

$232.52

PnL

-$172.45

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$199.22

Value

$213.51

PnL

+$14.29

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Over$114.0445.7¢+$4.54

Under$85.1847.1¢+$9.76

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$160.14

Value

$149.34

PnL

-$10.8

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

Both legs:

Under$71.8553.7¢+$20.47

Over$88.2948¢-$31.27

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$66

Value

$82.8

PnL

+$16.8

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$25.3

Value

$12.41

PnL

-$5.14

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.77

Value

$11.97

PnL

+$7.04

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.74

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$2.85

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.53

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.56

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.