Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 223.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 65¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over65¢Under35¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$75.65

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 64.5¢

-8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$863.8

Total Shares1,301

Combined PnL+$104.81

Under7 traders

Total Value$335.07

Total Shares937

Combined PnL-$29.16

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 72.1¢	$764.24	$705.11	-$59.13	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 42.6¢	$198.2	$155.69	-$42.51	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 61¢	$79.86	$87.77	+$7.91	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$66.07	$51.47	-$14.6	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 38.8¢	$60.91	$49.28	+$15.73	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$66.06	$49.18	-$16.88	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 57.1¢	$888.36	$48.31	+$157.95	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 73¢	$21.38	$19.26	-$2.12	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 22.8¢	$72.57	$14.13	+$26.56	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$6.66	$7.92	+$1.26	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 36.5¢	$6.13	$7.4	+$1.27	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.35	+$0.2	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$764.24

Value

$705.11

PnL

-$59.13

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$198.2

Value

$155.69

PnL

-$42.51

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$79.86

Value

$87.77

PnL

+$7.91

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.07

Value

$51.47

PnL

-$14.6

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.91

Value

$49.28

PnL

+$15.73

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.06

Value

$49.18

PnL

-$16.88

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$888.36

Value

$48.31

PnL

+$157.95

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$21.38

Value

$19.26

PnL

-$2.12

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72.57

Value

$14.13

PnL

+$26.56

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.66

Value

$7.92

PnL

+$1.26

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.13

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$1.27

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.