Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (25%) · Nuggets at 70¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Nuggets70¢Pelicans30¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 25%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$13.93

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 69.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets70%

Pelicans31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets3 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares9,330

Combined PnL-$205.33

Pelicans9 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares7,774

Combined PnL+$219.26

Nuggets — 25%Pelicans — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPelicans 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ET Ethanael02	Nuggetsavg 71.3¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$89.57	66% 109-55 (164)
BI bigbeliever	Nuggetsavg 71.4¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$116.79	63% 26-15 (41)
FO forecastication4CTR	Pelicansavg 28¢	$501.76	$573.44	+$71.68	34% 175-339 (514)
AN Anon455CTR	Pelicansavg 29.6¢	$480.2	$502.62	+$22.43	49% 429-439 (868)
alpheclabs2CTR	Pelicansavg 27¢	$409.08	$469.68	+$60.6	46% 316-377 (693)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Pelicansavg 30¢	$308.5	$314.02	+$5.51	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pelicansavg 28.7¢	$262.51	$283.4	+$20.89	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pelicansavg 29.2¢	$499.8	$173.35	+$27.77	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 28¢	$56	$64	+$8	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Nuggetsavg 68¢	$46.3	$47.32	+$1.02	61% 1053-665 (1718)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 29.2¢	$57.87	$28.56	+$2.02	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 30¢	$21.71	$22.07	+$0.36	42% 1060-1490 (2550)

Ethanael02

Nuggets

Invested

$3,500

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$89.57

Record

66%

109-55 (164)

bigbeliever

Nuggets

Invested

$3,106.84

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$116.79

Record

63%

26-15 (41)

forecastication4CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$501.76

Value

$573.44

PnL

+$71.68

Record

34%

175-339 (514)

Anon455CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$480.2

Value

$502.62

PnL

+$22.43

Record

49%

429-439 (868)

alpheclabs2CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$409.08

Value

$469.68

PnL

+$60.6

Record

46%

316-377 (693)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$308.5

Value

$314.02

PnL

+$5.51

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

FlaznorpCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$262.51

Value

$283.4

PnL

+$20.89

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

38791873984189CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$499.8

Value

$173.35

PnL

+$27.77

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$56

Value

$64

PnL

+$8

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

darkumbreon88<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$46.3

Value

$47.32

PnL

+$1.02

Record

61%

1053-665 (1718)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$57.87

Value

$28.56

PnL

+$2.02

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

sentrioCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$21.71

Value

$22.07

PnL

+$0.36

Record

42%

1060-1490 (2550)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPelicans 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.