Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (44%) · Nuggets at 59¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Nuggets59¢Pelicans41¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$13.28

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 59¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets59%

Pelicans41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans5 traders

Total Value$708.63

Total Shares1,661

Combined PnL-$5.19

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,204

Combined PnL+$18.47

Pelicans — 56%Nuggets — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Pelicansavg 43¢	$649.53	$641.97	-$7.55	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Nuggetsavg 52¢	$551.22	$575.88	+$24.67	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
SU SunlineTicker	Nuggetsavg 58¢	$537.08	$532.45	-$4.63	70% 1725-752 (2477)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 53.2¢	$454.59	$481.24	+$26.66	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 53.2¢	$276.19	$298.6	+$22.41
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 42¢	$178.4	$182.65	+$4.25
FL Flaznorp	Nuggetsavg 55¢	$143.95	$142.61	-$1.34	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 51.6¢	$47.22	$52.81	+$5.6	56% 4083-3191 (7274)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 51.6¢	$26.12	$26.58	+$0.45
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 38.2¢	$21.1	$26.24	+$5.14
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 41¢	$34.75	$36.44	+$1.69	39% 419-652 (1071)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 44.9¢	$17.95	$18.41	+$0.46	57% 3579-2662 (6241)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 45¢	$9.45	$9.66	+$0.21	47% 589-654 (1243)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Nuggetsavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.63	-$0.23	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.15	+$0	41% 708-1019 (1727)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$649.53

Value

$641.97

PnL

-$7.55

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nuggets

Invested

$551.22

Value

$575.88

PnL

+$24.67

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

SunlineTicker

Nuggets

Invested

$537.08

Value

$532.45

PnL

-$4.63

Record

70%

1725-752 (2477)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$454.59

Value

$481.24

PnL

+$26.66

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

Both legs:

Nuggets$276.1953.2¢+$22.41

Pelicans$178.442¢+$4.25

Flaznorp

Nuggets

Invested

$143.95

Value

$142.61

PnL

-$1.34

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$47.22

Value

$52.81

PnL

+$5.6

Record

56%

4083-3191 (7274)

Both legs:

Nuggets$26.1251.6¢+$0.45

Pelicans$21.138.2¢+$5.14

GC-PCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$34.75

Value

$36.44

PnL

+$1.69

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$17.95

Value

$18.41

PnL

+$0.46

Record

57%

3579-2662 (6241)

micky456CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$9.45

Value

$9.66

PnL

+$0.21

Record

47%

589-654 (1243)

ferdinand2<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.23

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.