Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (76%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 24¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$253.07

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 24¢

-51% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,836

Combined PnL+$122.25

Under7 traders

Total Value$731.76

Total Shares2,145

Combined PnL-$375.32

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 44.9¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$253.02	55% 750-604 (1354)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.9¢	$912.13	$1.4K	+$500.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.7¢	$744.86	$497.38	-$247.48
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 55.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$27.15	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$629.76	$545.41	-$84.34	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 36¢	$78.84	$132.66	+$53.82	53% 290-259 (549)
VE Venusian	Overavg 49¢	$66.39	$115.84	+$49.45	31% 423-941 (1364)
RN1CTR	Underavg 55.2¢	$208.49	$64.22	-$144.27	57% 4077-3095 (7172)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$64.66	$52.75	-$11.91	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 47¢	$132.78	$40.96	-$91.82	32% 424-920 (1344)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 48¢	$136.28	$21.31	-$43.05	31% 423-938 (1361)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 68.8¢	$33.7	$19.28	-$8.17	—
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$16.11	$6.83	+$0.38	49% 698-741 (1439)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$0.59	$0.27	-$0.32	—

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,656.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$253.02

Record

55%

750-604 (1354)

Both legs:

Over$912.1344.9¢+$500.5

Under$744.8645.7¢-$247.48

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,528.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$27.15

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$629.76

Value

$545.41

PnL

-$84.34

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$78.84

Value

$132.66

PnL

+$53.82

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$66.39

Value

$115.84

PnL

+$49.45

Record

31%

423-941 (1364)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$208.49

Value

$64.22

PnL

-$144.27

Record

57%

4077-3095 (7172)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$64.66

Value

$52.75

PnL

-$11.91

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$132.78

Value

$40.96

PnL

-$91.82

Record

32%

424-920 (1344)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$136.28

Value

$21.31

PnL

-$43.05

Record

31%

423-938 (1361)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$33.7

Value

$19.28

PnL

-$8.17

Record

—

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.11

Value

$6.83

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

698-741 (1439)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.32

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.