Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 66¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over35¢Under65¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$66.75

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 65.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,442

Combined PnL+$66.75

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Underavg 64.5¢	$426.76	$449.97	+$23.21	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
RN1	Underavg 69¢	$324.22	$265.68	+$10.14	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 65.1¢	$234.25	$264.6	+$30.35	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 31¢	$164.64	$149.91	-$14.73	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Over leg	Overavg 31¢	$133.07	$113.65	-$19.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$31.57	$36.26	+$4.69
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 65¢	$48.75	$51	+$2.25	49% 693-734 (1427)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 64.5¢	$15.02	$15.83	+$0.81	55% 683-554 (1237)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$426.76

Value

$449.97

PnL

+$23.21

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

RN1

Under

Invested

$324.22

Value

$265.68

PnL

+$10.14

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$234.25

Value

$264.6

PnL

+$30.35

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$164.64

Value

$149.91

PnL

-$14.73

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Over$133.0731¢-$19.42

Under$31.5764¢+$4.69

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$48.75

Value

$51

PnL

+$2.25

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$15.02

Value

$15.83

PnL

+$0.81

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.