Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 61¢ · $520 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 20%
1 arb excluded
$520.11
$37.87
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 61%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 64.9¢ | $261.35 | $272.03 | +$10.68 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $105.45 | $113.25 | +$7.8 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 59¢ | $70.8 | $66 | -$4.8 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 33¢ | $34.65 | $47.25 | +$12.6 | |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $66 | $90 | +$24 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $30.15 | $30.15 | +$0 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $10.85 | $13.95 | +$3.1 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $0.64 | $0.74 | +$0.1 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
RN1Invested
$261.35
Value
$272.03
PnL
+$10.68
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$105.45
Value
$113.25
PnL
+$7.8
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Both legs:
Invested
$66
Value
$90
PnL
+$24
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$30.15
Value
$30.15
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$10.85
Value
$13.95
PnL
+$3.1
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$0.64
Value
$0.74
PnL
+$0.1
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.