Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 50¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 88%
$12.8K
$134.54
50.7¢ → 49.5¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO JoeyAroyyOO | Overavg 49.1¢ | $5.7K | $5.8K | +$165.12 | 48% 101-110 (211) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 50.9¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | -$31.61 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$12.38 | 48% 536-588 (1124) |
KA KasonWongCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$10 | 23% 7-24 (31) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 51¢ | $127.5 | $126.25 | -$1.25 | 51% 446-422 (868) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 50.5¢ | $100.47 | $100.5 | +$0.03 | 48% 1332-1446 (2778) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $25.25 | $25.25 | +$0 | 48% 662-711 (1373) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $12.43 | $12.31 | -$0.12 | 54% 565-475 (1040) |
Invested
$5,663.97
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$165.12
Record
48%
101-110 (211)
Invested
$4,483.88
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$31.61
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$1,238
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$12.38
Record
48%
536-588 (1124)
Invested
$1,020
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$10
Record
23%
7-24 (31)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$127.5
Value
$126.25
PnL
-$1.25
Record
51%
446-422 (868)
Invested
$100.47
Value
$100.5
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
1332-1446 (2778)
Invested
$25.25
Value
$25.25
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
662-711 (1373)
Invested
$12.43
Value
$12.31
PnL
-$0.12
Record
54%
565-475 (1040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.