Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 53¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$41.02

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 52.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,933

Combined PnL+$88.63

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,514

Combined PnL-$47.61

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MAGATheeStallion	Overavg 51¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$88.23	2% 3-170 (173)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 49.8¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$97.7	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.8¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$112.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.3¢	$625.34	$639.92	+$14.58
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 48¢	$361.44	$357.68	-$3.76	15% 146-841 (987)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 50¢	$375	$356.25	-$18.75	20% 98-382 (480)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 50¢	$375	$356.25	-$18.75	59% 3477-2368 (5845)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 50¢	$125	$118.75	-$6.25	52% 472-438 (910)
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$23.81	$24.06	+$0.25	48% 101-110 (211)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.86	$2.89	+$0.03	55% 641-522 (1163)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.4	$2.55	+$0.15	48% 536-588 (1124)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.38	-$0.13	33% 307-627 (934)

MAGATheeStallion

Over

Invested

$2,999.82

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$88.23

Record

3-170 (173)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,174.25

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$97.7

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

Both legs:

Under$2,174.1849.8¢-$112.28

Over$625.3451.3¢+$14.58

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$361.44

Value

$357.68

PnL

-$3.76

Record

15%

146-841 (987)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$375

Value

$356.25

PnL

-$18.75

Record

20%

98-382 (480)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$375

Value

$356.25

PnL

-$18.75

Record

59%

3477-2368 (5845)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$125

Value

$118.75

PnL

-$6.25

Record

52%

472-438 (910)

JoeyAroyyOO<$100

Over

Invested

$23.81

Value

$24.06

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

101-110 (211)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.89

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

641-522 (1163)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

33%

307-627 (934)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.