Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 67¢ · $832 held · ended Nov 12

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$831.92

Combined PnL

-$2.83

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 67¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$534.79

Total Shares822

Combined PnL+$43.51

Under5 traders

Total Value$297.13

Total Shares846

Combined PnL-$46.34

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 59¢	$300.99	$326.49	+$25.51	55% 719-584 (1303)
RN1CTR	Underavg 41¢	$209.16	$168.35	-$40.81	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 58¢	$116	$134	+$18	53% 290-259 (549)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$84	$83	-$1	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 64¢	$70.69	$70.47	-$0.22	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$38.16	$34.98	-$3.18	38% 222-363 (585)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$10	$9	-$1	49% 693-734 (1427)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 57¢	$3.6	$3.83	+$0.23	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.15	$1.8	-$0.35	34% 328-634 (962)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$300.99

Value

$326.49

PnL

+$25.51

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$209.16

Value

$168.35

PnL

-$40.81

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$116

Value

$134

PnL

+$18

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$84

Value

$83

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$70.69

Value

$70.47

PnL

-$0.22

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.16

Value

$34.98

PnL

-$3.18

Record

38%

222-363 (585)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

PnL

-$1

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.83

PnL

+$0.23

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.35

Record

34%

328-634 (962)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.