Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 72¢ · $917 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 63%
$916.54
$14.79
66.3¢ → 71.5¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 72%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 62¢ | $262 | $299.2 | +$37.2 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
 RN1 | Overavg 71.4¢ | $290.68 | $291.07 | +$0.38 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 38¢ | $183.91 | $135.51 | -$48.4 | 30% 402-921 (1323) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $56 | $75 | +$19 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 28.9¢ | $58.42 | $57.57 | -$0.85 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $46.5 | $48.19 | +$6.69 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $5.56 | $6.46 | +$0.9 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Overavg 65¢ | $3.67 | $3.53 | -$0.14 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
Invested
$262
Value
$299.2
PnL
+$37.2
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
RN1Invested
$290.68
Value
$291.07
PnL
+$0.38
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$183.91
Value
$135.51
PnL
-$48.4
Record
30%
402-921 (1323)
Invested
$56
Value
$75
PnL
+$19
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$58.42
Value
$57.57
PnL
-$0.85
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$46.5
Value
$48.19
PnL
+$6.69
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$5.56
Value
$6.46
PnL
+$0.9
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
Invested
$3.67
Value
$3.53
PnL
-$0.14
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.