Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (88%) · Over at 77¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 88%
$2.9K
$106.52
65.4¢ → 76.5¢
+17% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 77%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 66.6¢ | $815.26 | $867.61 | +$52.35 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 66¢ | $660 | $675 | +$15 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
FO forecastication4 | Overavg 63¢ | $607.32 | $650.7 | +$43.38 | 19% 50-220 (270) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Underavg 34.2¢ | $415.6 | $389.12 | -$26.48 | 38% 222-363 (585) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 65.4¢ | $477.35 | $139.68 | +$13.74 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 71¢ | $66.03 | $71.15 | +$5.11 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 64.6¢ | $69.14 | $54.68 | +$2.95 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 65.5¢ | $14.36 | $11.42 | +$0.46 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
Invested
$815.26
Value
$867.61
PnL
+$52.35
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$660
Value
$675
PnL
+$15
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$607.32
Value
$650.7
PnL
+$43.38
Record
19%
50-220 (270)
Invested
$415.6
Value
$389.12
PnL
-$26.48
Record
38%
222-363 (585)
Invested
$477.35
Value
$139.68
PnL
+$13.74
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
RN1<$100Invested
$66.03
Value
$71.15
PnL
+$5.11
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$69.14
Value
$54.68
PnL
+$2.95
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$14.36
Value
$11.42
PnL
+$0.46
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.