Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 218.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 85¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 29%
$1.1K
$16.49
76.3¢ → 84.5¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 85%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 75.2¢ | $620.39 | $697.09 | +$76.7 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
 RN1 | Overavg 81¢ | $270.52 | $186.95 | -$18.71 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | Underavg 24¢ | $144 | $114 | -$30 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $56.62 | $56.62 | +$0 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $19.44 | $15.39 | -$4.05 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $15.6 | $12.35 | -$3.25 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $15.6 | $11.4 | -$4.2 | 31% 412-897 (1309) |
Invested
$620.39
Value
$697.09
PnL
+$76.7
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
RN1Invested
$270.52
Value
$186.95
PnL
-$18.71
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$144
Value
$114
PnL
-$30
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$56.62
Value
$56.62
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$19.44
Value
$15.39
PnL
-$4.05
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$12.35
PnL
-$3.25
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$11.4
PnL
-$4.2
Record
31%
412-897 (1309)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.