Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 216.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 88¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over88¢Under12¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$36.51

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 87.5¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over88%

Under13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,761

Combined PnL+$6.84

Under6 traders

Total Value$309.32

Total Shares1,863

Combined PnL-$43.36

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Overavg 81.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$35.52	69% 2587-1182 (3769)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 81.7¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$28.68	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 17¢	$170.3	$170.39	+$0.09	55% 719-584 (1303)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$82.79	$75.37	-$7.42	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 22.5¢	$72.32	$40.25	-$32.07	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 18.4¢	$15.55	$14.33	-$1.22	49% 693-734 (1427)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 18.7¢	$7.5	$5.22	-$0.49	55% 683-554 (1237)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$6.02	$3.76	-$2.26	31% 411-924 (1335)

purplegatto

Over

Invested

$1,980.74

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$35.52

Record

69%

2587-1182 (3769)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,561.59

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$28.68

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$170.3

Value

$170.39

PnL

+$0.09

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82.79

Value

$75.37

PnL

-$7.42

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72.32

Value

$40.25

PnL

-$32.07

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.55

Value

$14.33

PnL

-$1.22

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.5

Value

$5.22

PnL

-$0.49

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.02

Value

$3.76

PnL

-$2.26

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.