Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (80%) · Nuggets at 55¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Nuggets55¢Grizzlies45¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 80%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$115.09

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 54.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 5 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets55%

Grizzlies46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,956

Combined PnL+$152.33

Grizzlies1 trader

Total Value$50.12

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$37.23

Nuggets — 80%Grizzlies — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Nuggets 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Nuggetsavg 49.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$111.45	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 57¢	$1.0K	$942.31	-$87.01	45% 185-223 (408)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 57¢	$570	$650	+$80
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$459.32	$292.31	-$167.01
RN1ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 45.4¢	$687.91	$618.99	+$37.07	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 45.4¢	$339.5	$407.87	+$83.63
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 55.5¢	$257.68	$211.12	-$46.56
65 6512395314597884	Nuggetsavg 54.3¢	$225.97	$268.13	+$42.16	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 35¢	$62.25	$88	+$25.75	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 35¢	$30.05	$55.8	+$25.75
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 35¢	$32.2	$32.2	-$0
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 61¢	$87.36	$50.12	-$37.23	55% 719-584 (1303)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Nuggetsavg 65¢	$54.6	$45.78	-$8.82	64% 280-160 (440)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nuggetsavg 36¢	$9.36	$16.9	+$7.54	49% 693-734 (1427)

Flaznorp

Nuggets

Invested

$1,216.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$111.45

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Anon455ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$1,029.32

Value

$942.31

PnL

-$87.01

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

Both legs:

Nuggets$57057¢+$80

Grizzlies$459.3255¢-$167.01

RN1ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$687.91

Value

$618.99

PnL

+$37.07

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Nuggets$339.545.4¢+$83.63

Grizzlies$257.6855.5¢-$46.56

6512395314597884

Nuggets

Invested

$225.97

Value

$268.13

PnL

+$42.16

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$62.25

Value

$88

PnL

+$25.75

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Nuggets$30.0535¢+$25.75

Grizzlies$32.235¢-$0

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$87.36

Value

$50.12

PnL

-$37.23

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

suitcase6628<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$54.6

Value

$45.78

PnL

-$8.82

Record

64%

280-160 (440)

Pan9X<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$9.36

Value

$16.9

PnL

+$7.54

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 5 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Nuggets 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.