Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (67%) · Nuggets at 59¢ · $944 held · ended Nov 12

Nuggets59¢Grizzlies41¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$944.2

Combined PnL

$66.54

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 58.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets59%

Grizzlies42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets6 traders

Total Value$434.89

Total Shares627

Combined PnL+$51.93

Grizzlies3 traders

Total Value$250.66

Total Shares606

Combined PnL+$14.61

Nuggets — 67%Grizzlies — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nuggets 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 61.5¢	$262.4	$258.66	-$3.74	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 61.5¢	$160	$172.9	+$12.9
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$102.4	$85.76	-$16.64
RN1	Nuggetsavg 60¢	$153.6	$180.48	+$26.88	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Grizzliesavg 35¢	$137.19	$162.67	+$25.48	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Nuggetsavg 58¢	$91.67	$111.42	+$19.76	55% 719-584 (1303)
38 38791873984189<$100	Nuggetsavg 65¢	$92.3	$94.43	+$2.13	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 42¢	$66.38	$65.59	-$0.79	31% 411-924 (1335)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nuggetsavg 65¢	$32.48	$33.23	+$0.75	49% 693-734 (1427)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 58¢	$32.48	$22.4	-$10.08	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
AN Anon455<$100	Nuggetsavg 48.9¢	$9.82	$10.69	+$0.87	45% 185-223 (408)
SE sentrio<$100	Nuggetsavg 40¢	$3.09	$4.63	+$1.54	39% 395-620 (1015)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$262.4

Value

$258.66

PnL

-$3.74

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Nuggets$16061.5¢+$12.9

Grizzlies$102.440¢-$16.64

RN1

Nuggets

Invested

$153.6

Value

$180.48

PnL

+$26.88

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

FlaznorpCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$137.19

Value

$162.67

PnL

+$25.48

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Nuggets

Invested

$91.67

Value

$111.42

PnL

+$19.76

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

38791873984189<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$92.3

Value

$94.43

PnL

+$2.13

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

VenusianCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$66.38

Value

$65.59

PnL

-$0.79

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

Pan9X<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$32.48

Value

$33.23

PnL

+$0.75

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$32.48

Value

$22.4

PnL

-$10.08

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Anon455<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$9.82

Value

$10.69

PnL

+$0.87

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

sentrio<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$3.09

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$1.54

Record

39%

395-620 (1015)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nuggets 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.