Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (57%) · Grizzlies at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Nuggets30¢Grizzlies70¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 57%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$314.37

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 70¢

+34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets30%

Grizzlies70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies4 traders

Total Value$994.56

Total Shares1,447

Combined PnL+$237.91

Nuggets3 traders

Total Value$722.65

Total Shares1,571

Combined PnL+$76.46

Grizzlies — 57%Nuggets — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying88888	Grizzliesavg 50.7¢	$486.4	$676.8	+$190.4	37% 121-203 (324)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Nuggetsavg 50¢	$466.38	$429.07	-$37.31	55% 719-584 (1303)
MA MadridTime	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$166.38	$234.6	+$68.22	31% 412-897 (1309)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Nuggetsavg 22.2¢	$106.21	$219.98	+$113.77	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Grizzliesavg 67¢	$99.36	$80.08	-$19.28	53% 290-259 (549)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 46¢	$73.6	$73.6	+$0	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
PA Pan9X<$100	Grizzliesavg 79¢	$4.51	$3.08	-$1.43	49% 693-734 (1427)

biying88888

Grizzlies

Invested

$486.4

Value

$676.8

PnL

+$190.4

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$466.38

Value

$429.07

PnL

-$37.31

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

MadridTime

Grizzlies

Invested

$166.38

Value

$234.6

PnL

+$68.22

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

FlaznorpCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$106.21

Value

$219.98

PnL

+$113.77

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$99.36

Value

$80.08

PnL

-$19.28

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$73.6

Value

$73.6

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Pan9X<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$4.51

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$1.43

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.