Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Grizzlies (57%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (33%) · Nuggets at 43¢ · $738 held · ended Nov 12

Nuggets43¢Grizzlies57¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 33%

Total Value

$738.41

Combined PnL

$90.56

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 42.5¢

-18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets43%

Grizzlies57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets3 traders

Total Value$429.84

Total Shares725

Combined PnL+$50.73

Grizzlies6 traders

Total Value$308.57

Total Shares562

Combined PnL+$39.83

Nuggets — 33%Grizzlies — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Nuggetsavg 50¢	$261.46	$308.33	+$46.87	55% 719-584 (1303)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Nuggetsavg 56¢	$110.38	$114.36	+$3.98	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
MA MadridTime<$100	Grizzliesavg 41¢	$66.38	$93.09	+$26.71	31% 412-897 (1309)
VE Venusian<$100	Grizzliesavg 44¢	$66.38	$86.75	+$20.37	31% 411-924 (1335)
RN1<$100	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$73.86	$60.57	-$13.29	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$39.46	$36.79	+$3.83	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
BI biying88888<$100	Grizzliesavg 44¢	$17.16	$22.42	+$5.26	37% 121-203 (324)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$12	$8.95	-$3.06	53% 290-259 (549)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 60¢	$7.28	$7.15	-$0.12	49% 693-734 (1427)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$261.46

Value

$308.33

PnL

+$46.87

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

6512395314597884CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$110.38

Value

$114.36

PnL

+$3.98

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

MadridTime<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$66.38

Value

$93.09

PnL

+$26.71

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

Venusian<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$66.38

Value

$86.75

PnL

+$20.37

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

RN1<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$73.86

Value

$60.57

PnL

-$13.29

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Flaznorp<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$39.46

Value

$36.79

PnL

+$3.83

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

biying88888<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$17.16

Value

$22.42

PnL

+$5.26

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$12

Value

$8.95

PnL

-$3.06

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.15

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.