Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$270.67

Smart Money Entry

39.3¢ → 47.5¢

+21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,589

Combined PnL+$266.12

Over2 traders

Total Value$420.6

Total Shares786

Combined PnL+$4.55

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 52¢	$1.0K	$930	-$110	49% 31-32 (63)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$732.47	$444.86	+$31.41	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$307.02	$334.94	+$27.89
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$120.56	$109.92	+$3.52
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 52.9¢	$413.45	$417.93	+$4.47	54% 696-601 (1297)
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 0¢	$0	$379.46	+$379.46	61% 4534-2843 (7377)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$350	$162.75	-$1.75	57% 22821-16910 (39731)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$350	$162.75	-$1.75	57% 22672-16911 (39583)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$24.99	$25.26	+$0.27	48% 575-623 (1198)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$24.37	$11.33	-$0.12	57% 25537-19073 (44610)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 51.4¢	$4.15	$4.23	+$0.08	53% 14841-13046 (27887)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5	$2.68	+$0.08	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$1.37	$1.3	-$0.07	48% 72263-78012 (150275)

KasonWongCTR

Under

Invested

$1,040

Value

$930

PnL

-$110

Record

49%

31-32 (63)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$732.47

Value

$444.86

PnL

+$31.41

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

Both legs:

Over$307.0249¢+$27.89

Under$120.5651¢+$3.52

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$413.45

Value

$417.93

PnL

+$4.47

Record

54%

696-601 (1297)

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

Value

$379.46

PnL

+$379.46

Record

61%

4534-2843 (7377)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$350

Value

$162.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

57%

22821-16910 (39731)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$350

Value

$162.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

57%

22672-16911 (39583)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.99

Value

$25.26

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

575-623 (1198)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.37

Value

$11.33

PnL

-$0.12

Record

57%

25537-19073 (44610)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.37

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.