Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Nuggets (62%). 18 of 29 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Rockets (-8.5)

18 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (62%) · Rockets at 38¢ · $103K held · ends Nov 10

Rockets38¢Nuggets62¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 62%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$102.7K

Combined PnL

-$373.67

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 38¢

-24% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

18 of 29 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rockets38%

Nuggets62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets11 traders

Total Value$37.7K

Total Shares59,853

Combined PnL+$7.0K

Rockets18 traders

Total Value$25.9K

Total Shares65,523

Combined PnL$-7.4K

Nuggets — 38%Rockets — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Nuggets) and the top 1000 (29 on Rockets) disagree here.

Hand-pickedNuggets 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 69% · 29

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 52¢	$25.4K	$21.7K	$-3.7K	—
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 60.9¢	$10.9K	$11.1K	+$204.63
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 52¢	$14.5K	$10.6K	$-3.9K
PP ppku6298	Nuggetsavg 48¢	$9.0K	$11.7K	+$2.7K	—
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Rocketsavg 49.5¢	$12.5K	$10.4K	$-1.8K	—
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 49.5¢	$10.8K	$8.1K	$-2.3K
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 47.3¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$502.57
VeryLucky888	Nuggetsavg 51.7¢	$8.8K	$10.0K	+$1.4K	—
drainedandpoorCTR	Rocketsavg 51.8¢	$10.9K	$8.4K	$-2.5K	—
alpheclabs2CTR	Rocketsavg 48.2¢	$7.3K	$5.7K	$-1.6K	—
HG hgawx	Nuggetsavg 48¢	$4.2K	$5.4K	+$1.2K	—
FE fekefee	Nuggetsavg 48¢	$3.2K	$4.0K	+$858	—
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 54¢	$6.0K	$4.0K	-$183.9	—
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 54¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$320.5
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 48.3¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$504.4
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Rocketsavg 48.6¢	$5.0K	$3.9K	-$996.03	—
RN1CTR	Rocketsavg 48.3¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$661.67	—
HI hi774cCTR	Rocketsavg 49.6¢	$3.0K	$2.3K	-$664.11	—
AY ay118	Nuggetsavg 49¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$404.03	—
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 59.8¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$111.94	—
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 59.8¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$47.67
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 48.8¢	$722.59	$555.62	-$159.61
AP AppleTiiime	Nuggetsavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$37.71	—
73 739633786	Nuggetsavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$289.44	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Rocketsavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$378.63	—
GC GC-PCTR	Rocketsavg 50.1¢	$982.98	$794.57	-$188.41	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Rocketsavg 52¢	$790.57	$787.11	-$3.46	—
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 52¢	$625.34	$481.12	-$6.01
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 48¢	$244.74	$305.99	+$2.55
SU SunlineTicker	Nuggetsavg 50¢	$645.9	$664.22	+$104.56	—
PU purplegatto	Nuggetsavg 62¢	$616.76	$616.83	+$0.07	—
NM NM-PCTR	Rocketsavg 49.9¢	$675.11	$544.97	-$149.32	—
65 6512395314597884CTR	Rocketsavg 50¢	$500	$380	-$120	—
SE sentrioARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 47.3¢	$355.77	$378.67	-$34.98	—
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 47.3¢	$195.4	$258.43	+$5.15
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 50¢	$160.37	$120.24	-$40.13
SN SnakeBall	Nuggetsavg 48¢	$161.65	$187.58	-$9.43	—

nigiri99ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$25,370.93

Value

$21.7K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

—

Both legs:

Nuggets$10,853.0760.9¢+$204.63

Rockets$14,517.8652¢$-3.9K

ppku6298

Nuggets

Invested

$8,960

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

—

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$12,479.89

Value

$10.4K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

—

Both legs:

Rockets$10,750.3649.5¢$-2.3K

Nuggets$1,729.5347.3¢+$502.57

VeryLucky888

Nuggets

Invested

$8,818.92

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

—

drainedandpoorCTR

Rockets

Invested

$10,920.68

Value

$8.4K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

—

alpheclabs2CTR

Rockets

Invested

$7,270.23

Value

$5.7K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

—

hgawx

Nuggets

Invested

$4,176

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

—

fekefee

Nuggets

Invested

$3,167.99

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$858

Record

—

GaditimaARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$6,019.5

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$183.9

Record

—

Both legs:

Nuggets$2,159.554¢+$320.5

Rockets$1,956.5448.3¢-$504.4

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Rockets

Invested

$5,037.98

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$996.03

Record

—

RN1CTR

Rockets

Invested

$3,039.59

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$661.67

Record

—

hi774cCTR

Rockets

Invested

$2,977.05

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$664.11

Record

—

ay118

Nuggets

Invested

$1,799.77

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$404.03

Record

—

38791873984189ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$1,870.3

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$111.94

Record

—

Both legs:

Nuggets$1,036.5159.8¢+$47.67

Rockets$722.5948.8¢-$159.61

AppleTiiime

Nuggets

Invested

$1,533.49

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$37.71

Record

—

739633786

Nuggets

Invested

$1,157.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$289.44

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,572.65

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$378.63

Record

—

GC-PCTR

Rockets

Invested

$982.98

Value

$794.57

PnL

-$188.41

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$790.57

Value

$787.11

PnL

-$3.46

Record

—

Both legs:

Rockets$625.3452¢-$6.01

Nuggets$244.7448¢+$2.55

SunlineTicker

Nuggets

Invested

$645.9

Value

$664.22

PnL

+$104.56

Record

—

purplegatto

Nuggets

Invested

$616.76

Value

$616.83

PnL

+$0.07

Record

—

NM-PCTR

Rockets

Invested

$675.11

Value

$544.97

PnL

-$149.32

Record

—

6512395314597884CTR

Rockets

Invested

$500

Value

$380

PnL

-$120

Record

—

sentrioARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$355.77

Value

$378.67

PnL

-$34.98

Record

—

Both legs:

Nuggets$195.447.3¢+$5.15

Rockets$160.3750¢-$40.13

SnakeBall

Nuggets

Invested

$161.65

Value

$187.58

PnL

-$9.43

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

18 of 29 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Nuggets) and the top 1000 (29 on Rockets) disagree here.

Hand-pickedNuggets 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 69% · 29

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.