Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$8.8

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 70.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$890.2

Total Shares1,261

Combined PnL-$61.91

Under4 traders

Total Value$145.22

Total Shares437

Combined PnL+$53.11

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 71¢	$1.1K	$708.41	-$66.03	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
RN1	Overavg 69¢	$164.22	$166.6	+$2.38	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 32¢	$111.34	$102.8	-$8.54	52% 411-380 (791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 28¢	$956.26	$29.27	+$62.17	54% 1122-947 (2069)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 57.6¢	$13.45	$15.19	+$1.74	57% 3461-2635 (6096)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 41.9¢	$10.47	$10.28	-$0.2	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$3.2	$2.87	-$0.33	34% 685-1328 (2013)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,064.44

Value

$708.41

PnL

-$66.03

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

RN1

Over

Invested

$164.22

Value

$166.6

PnL

+$2.38

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$111.34

Value

$102.8

PnL

-$8.54

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$956.26

Value

$29.27

PnL

+$62.17

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$13.45

Value

$15.19

PnL

+$1.74

Record

57%

3461-2635 (6096)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.47

Value

$10.28

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$0.33

Record

34%

685-1328 (2013)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.