Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Timberwolves, while the market favors Mavericks (53%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (29%) · Timberwolves at 47¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 13

Timberwolves47¢Mavericks53¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 29%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$614.14

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 47¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves47%

Mavericks53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves2 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,937

Combined PnL-$6.8

Mavericks5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,584

Combined PnL+$620.95

Timberwolves — 29%Mavericks — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Timberwolvesavg 50.7¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$17	52% 411-380 (791)
Greedo	Mavericksavg 49¢	$2.5K	$3.1K	+$614.48	50% 188-191 (379)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Mavericksavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	+$111.01	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 50¢	$624.75	$687.23	+$107.48
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 44.5¢	$333.31	$336.85	+$3.54
RN1ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 60¢	$420.59	$354.75	+$18.55	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 60¢	$276.6	$278.91	+$2.3
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 35.7¢	$68.6	$75.84	+$16.25
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 67¢	$377.64	$312.13	-$65.51	54% 1122-947 (2069)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 54.6¢	$174.63	$171.24	-$3.39
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 67¢	$203.01	$140.9	-$62.11
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 42.4¢	$273.41	$275.62	+$17.2	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 42.4¢	$151.52	$160.67	+$9.14
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 51¢	$106.59	$114.95	+$8.06
65 6512395314597884	Mavericksavg 60¢	$120	$121	+$1	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
TA takeormake	Mavericksavg 50.5¢	$99.4	$108.36	+$8.95	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$116.62	$92.82	-$23.8	42% 331-451 (782)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Mavericksavg 57¢	$20.52	$17.64	-$2.88	57% 3461-2635 (6096)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 50¢	$15	$14.4	-$0.6	49% 1103-1157 (2260)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$3,399.24

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$17

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

Greedo

Mavericks

Invested

$2,509.12

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$614.48

Record

50%

188-191 (379)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1,183.06

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$111.01

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

Both legs:

Mavericks$624.7550¢+$107.48

Timberwolves$333.3144.5¢+$3.54

RN1ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$420.59

Value

$354.75

PnL

+$18.55

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Both legs:

Mavericks$276.660¢+$2.3

Timberwolves$68.635.7¢+$16.25

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$377.64

Value

$312.13

PnL

-$65.51

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$174.6354.6¢-$3.39

Mavericks$203.0167¢-$62.11

FlaznorpARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$273.41

Value

$275.62

PnL

+$17.2

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$151.5242.4¢+$9.14

Mavericks$106.5951¢+$8.06

6512395314597884

Mavericks

Invested

$120

Value

$121

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

takeormake

Mavericks

Invested

$99.4

Value

$108.36

PnL

+$8.95

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

justaluckydudeCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$116.62

Value

$92.82

PnL

-$23.8

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$20.52

Value

$17.64

PnL

-$2.88

Record

57%

3461-2635 (6096)

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$15

Value

$14.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.