Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Timberwolves (63%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (92%) · Mavericks at 37¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Timberwolves63¢Mavericks37¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 92%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$40.44

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 37¢

-18% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves63%

Mavericks37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves1 trader

Total Value$247.78

Total Shares410

Combined PnL+$11.74

Mavericks11 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,474

Combined PnL-$52.18

Timberwolves — 8%Mavericks — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Mavericksavg 44.6¢	$950.49	$898.17	-$52.33	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 44.6¢	$800.77	$709.46	-$91.32
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$149.72	$188.71	+$38.99
RN1ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 47.4¢	$636.3	$543.97	+$19.67	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 47.4¢	$300.5	$281.98	-$18.52
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$235.87	$261.98	+$38.18
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 59.3¢	$501.97	$455.24	-$46.73	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 59.3¢	$267.92	$248.6	-$19.32
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 51¢	$234.05	$206.64	-$27.41
JU justaluckydude	Timberwolvesavg 57.6¢	$236.04	$247.78	+$11.74	42% 331-451 (782)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Mavericksavg 49.2¢	$526.71	$244	-$18.79	54% 1122-947 (2069)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Mavericksavg 46.9¢	$169.08	$163.13	-$5.95	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 46.9¢	$135.8	$127.29	-$8.51
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 52¢	$33.28	$35.84	+$2.56
38 38791873984189CTR	Mavericksavg 51.1¢	$226.23	$151.67	-$41.24	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
VeryLucky888CTR	Mavericksavg 41¢	$139.37	$149.57	+$10.2	52% 881-800 (1681)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Mavericksavg 43¢	$134.91	$124.02	-$10.89	48% 372-397 (769)
PA Pan9XCTR	Mavericksavg 49.5¢	$127.71	$113.52	-$14.19	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
NM NM-PCTR	Mavericksavg 41¢	$102.5	$110	+$7.5	59% 3613-2462 (6075)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 41¢	$69.28	$74.35	+$5.07	31% 214-474 (688)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 39.2¢	$52.56	$59.63	+$7.07	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 41¢	$36.99	$39.69	+$2.71	42% 719-993 (1712)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 37¢	$5.87	$6.51	+$0.63	44% 496-624 (1120)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 50.5¢	$7.45	$2.2	-$0.25	49% 1475-1523 (2998)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$950.49

Value

$898.17

PnL

-$52.33

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Mavericks$800.7744.6¢-$91.32

Timberwolves$149.7248¢+$38.99

RN1ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$636.3

Value

$543.97

PnL

+$19.67

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Both legs:

Mavericks$300.547.4¢-$18.52

Timberwolves$235.8750¢+$38.18

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$501.97

Value

$455.24

PnL

-$46.73

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$267.9259.3¢-$19.32

Mavericks$234.0551¢-$27.41

justaluckydude

Timberwolves

Invested

$236.04

Value

$247.78

PnL

+$11.74

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$526.71

Value

$244

PnL

-$18.79

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$169.08

Value

$163.13

PnL

-$5.95

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

Both legs:

Mavericks$135.846.9¢-$8.51

Timberwolves$33.2852¢+$2.56

38791873984189CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$226.23

Value

$151.67

PnL

-$41.24

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

VeryLucky888CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$139.37

Value

$149.57

PnL

+$10.2

Record

52%

881-800 (1681)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$134.91

Value

$124.02

PnL

-$10.89

Record

48%

372-397 (769)

Pan9XCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$127.71

Value

$113.52

PnL

-$14.19

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

NM-PCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$102.5

Value

$110

PnL

+$7.5

Record

59%

3613-2462 (6075)

GC-PCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$69.28

Value

$74.35

PnL

+$5.07

Record

31%

214-474 (688)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$52.56

Value

$59.63

PnL

+$7.07

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

sentrioCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$36.99

Value

$39.69

PnL

+$2.71

Record

42%

719-993 (1712)

lryyyCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$5.87

Value

$6.51

PnL

+$0.63

Record

44%

496-624 (1120)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$7.45

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.