Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (40%) · Timberwolves at 64¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Timberwolves64¢Mavericks36¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$15.38

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 64¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves64%

Mavericks36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves4 traders

Total Value$994.82

Total Shares1,657

Combined PnL+$44.31

Mavericks6 traders

Total Value$742.59

Total Shares1,878

Combined PnL-$59.7

Timberwolves — 40%Mavericks — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Timberwolvesavg 53¢	$475.36	$529.1	+$53.74	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 65.5¢	$502.58	$455.71	-$46.87	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 65.5¢	$262	$242	-$20
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 44.5¢	$240.58	$213.71	-$26.87
JU justaluckydude	Timberwolvesavg 61.3¢	$397.48	$382.32	-$15.16	42% 331-451 (782)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 39.6¢	$252.34	$261.04	+$8.7	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Mavericksavg 45.2¢	$248.16	$212.25	-$35.91	54% 1122-947 (2069)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Mavericksavg 46.3¢	$138.9	$115.87	-$23.03	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 36.4¢	$74.18	$80.58	+$6.4	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 47.3¢	$86.37	$70.57	-$15.79	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Mavericksavg 38¢	$65.81	$66.39	+$0.58	48% 627-689 (1316)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 38¢	$40.01	$40.01	+$0
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 60¢	$25.8	$26.38	+$0.58
PA Pan9X<$100	Timberwolvesavg 62.9¢	$49.66	$49.04	-$0.62	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$28	$34.35	+$6.35	48% 372-397 (769)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 39¢	$2.34	$2.28	-$0.06	45% 178-222 (400)

RN1

Timberwolves

Invested

$475.36

Value

$529.1

PnL

+$53.74

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$502.58

Value

$455.71

PnL

-$46.87

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$26265.5¢-$20

Mavericks$240.5844.5¢-$26.87

justaluckydude

Timberwolves

Invested

$397.48

Value

$382.32

PnL

-$15.16

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$252.34

Value

$261.04

PnL

+$8.7

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$248.16

Value

$212.25

PnL

-$35.91

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$138.9

Value

$115.87

PnL

-$23.03

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$74.18

Value

$80.58

PnL

+$6.4

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$86.37

Value

$70.57

PnL

-$15.79

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$65.81

Value

$66.39

PnL

+$0.58

Record

48%

627-689 (1316)

Both legs:

Mavericks$40.0138¢+$0

Timberwolves$25.860¢+$0.58

Pan9X<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$49.66

Value

$49.04

PnL

-$0.62

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$28

Value

$34.35

PnL

+$6.35

Record

48%

372-397 (769)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.06

Record

45%

178-222 (400)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.