Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (33%) · Timberwolves at 70¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Timberwolves70¢Mavericks30¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$8.35

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 70¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves70%

Mavericks30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$838.39

Total Shares1,106

Combined PnL+$66.47

Mavericks6 traders

Total Value$346.03

Total Shares1,095

Combined PnL-$58.12

Timberwolves — 33%Mavericks — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Timberwolves) and the top 1000 (9 on Mavericks) disagree here.

ctrTimberwolves 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Timberwolvesavg 57.3¢	$368.76	$439.63	+$70.87	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Timberwolvesavg 71¢	$260.15	$249.16	-$10.99	52% 411-380 (791)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 64.4¢	$271.9	$247.84	-$24.06	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 64.4¢	$172.7	$155.44	-$17.26
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 45.1¢	$99.2	$92.4	-$6.8
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 36.2¢	$249.51	$220.29	-$29.22	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
JU justaluckydude	Timberwolvesavg 65¢	$143	$149.6	+$6.6	42% 331-451 (782)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 33.3¢	$73.22	$71.5	-$1.72	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 45.9¢	$67.49	$42.61	-$24.88	54% 1122-947 (2069)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 35¢	$9.1	$7.54	-$1.56	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 34¢	$3.43	$2.92	-$0.5	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 35¢	$1.4	$1.16	-$0.24	45% 178-222 (400)

RN1

Timberwolves

Invested

$368.76

Value

$439.63

PnL

+$70.87

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Timberwolves

Invested

$260.15

Value

$249.16

PnL

-$10.99

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$271.9

Value

$247.84

PnL

-$24.06

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$172.764.4¢-$17.26

Mavericks$99.245.1¢-$6.8

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$249.51

Value

$220.29

PnL

-$29.22

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

justaluckydude

Timberwolves

Invested

$143

Value

$149.6

PnL

+$6.6

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$73.22

Value

$71.5

PnL

-$1.72

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$67.49

Value

$42.61

PnL

-$24.88

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$9.1

Value

$7.54

PnL

-$1.56

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$3.43

Value

$2.92

PnL

-$0.5

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$0.24

Record

45%

178-222 (400)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Timberwolves) and the top 1000 (9 on Mavericks) disagree here.

ctrTimberwolves 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.