Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (33%) · Mavericks at 64¢ · $805 held · ended Nov 13

Timberwolves36¢Mavericks64¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$805.39

Combined PnL

-$7.34

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 64¢

-8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves36%

Mavericks64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$435.5

Total Shares666

Combined PnL-$50.65

Timberwolves6 traders

Total Value$229.04

Total Shares628

Combined PnL+$43.31

Mavericks — 33%Timberwolves — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTimberwolves 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Mavericksavg 67¢	$224.45	$207.7	-$16.75	52% 399-371 (770)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Mavericksavg 75¢	$229.8	$191.77	-$38.03	54% 1122-947 (2069)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 62.9¢	$148.43	$140.85	-$7.58	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 62.9¢	$81.46	$80.26	-$1.2
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 42¢	$66.97	$60.59	-$6.38
RN1CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 25¢	$68.9	$95.08	+$26.18	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 33¢	$59.64	$68.68	+$9.04	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 33¢	$40.02	$46.08	+$6.06	48% 627-689 (1316)
TA takeormake<$100	Mavericksavg 58¢	$31.9	$36.03	+$4.13	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 33¢	$8.58	$9.88	+$1.3	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 33¢	$6.27	$7.22	+$0.95	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 42¢	$2.32	$2.1	-$0.22	51% 2128-2072 (4200)

nigiri99

Mavericks

Invested

$224.45

Value

$207.7

PnL

-$16.75

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Mavericks

Invested

$229.8

Value

$191.77

PnL

-$38.03

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$148.43

Value

$140.85

PnL

-$7.58

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Mavericks$81.4662.9¢-$1.2

Timberwolves$66.9742¢-$6.38

RN1CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$68.9

Value

$95.08

PnL

+$26.18

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$59.64

Value

$68.68

PnL

+$9.04

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$40.02

Value

$46.08

PnL

+$6.06

Record

48%

627-689 (1316)

takeormake<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$31.9

Value

$36.03

PnL

+$4.13

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$8.58

Value

$9.88

PnL

+$1.3

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$6.27

Value

$7.22

PnL

+$0.95

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.22

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTimberwolves 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.