Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (60%) · Timberwolves at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Mavericks12¢Timberwolves88¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 60%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$14.76

Smart Money Entry

83.6¢ → 88¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks12%

Timberwolves88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,931

Combined PnL+$118.43

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$253.54

Total Shares2,134

Combined PnL-$103.67

Timberwolves — 60%Mavericks — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Timberwolves 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Timberwolvesavg 84.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$95.09	54% 1122-947 (2069)
AN Anon455	Timberwolvesavg 85¢	$241.4	$239.98	-$1.42	50% 306-311 (617)
65 6512395314597884	Timberwolvesavg 80¢	$165.28	$184.16	+$18.88	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 15.9¢	$213.31	$153.96	-$59.35	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 20¢	$96.2	$55.32	-$40.89	52% 411-380 (791)
RN1CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 15¢	$42.6	$39.76	-$2.84	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
PA Pan9X<$100	Timberwolvesavg 80¢	$32	$36.4	+$4.4	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
38 38791873984189<$100	Timberwolvesavg 82¢	$16.4	$17	+$0.6	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
TA takeormake<$100	Timberwolvesavg 81.1¢	$14.6	$15.48	+$0.88	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 17¢	$5.1	$4.5	-$0.6	49% 1475-1523 (2998)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,151.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$95.09

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Anon455

Timberwolves

Invested

$241.4

Value

$239.98

PnL

-$1.42

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

6512395314597884

Timberwolves

Invested

$165.28

Value

$184.16

PnL

+$18.88

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$213.31

Value

$153.96

PnL

-$59.35

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$96.2

Value

$55.32

PnL

-$40.89

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

RN1CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$42.6

Value

$39.76

PnL

-$2.84

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Pan9X<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$32

Value

$36.4

PnL

+$4.4

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

38791873984189<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$16.4

Value

$17

PnL

+$0.6

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

takeormake<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$14.6

Value

$15.48

PnL

+$0.88

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$5.1

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.6

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Timberwolves 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.