Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (50%) · Timberwolves at 80¢ · $678 held · ended Nov 13

Mavericks21¢Timberwolves79¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 50%

Total Value

$677.66

Combined PnL

$5.53

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 79.5¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks21%

Timberwolves80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves5 traders

Total Value$596.99

Total Shares777

Combined PnL+$50.61

Mavericks5 traders

Total Value$80.67

Total Shares411

Combined PnL-$45.08

Timberwolves — 50%Mavericks — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Timberwolves 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Timberwolvesavg 67.2¢	$244.73	$276.98	+$32.25	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
65 6512395314597884	Timberwolvesavg 72.6¢	$134.71	$133.98	-$0.73	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
38 38791873984189	Timberwolvesavg 71.6¢	$97.23	$112.67	+$15.44	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 33¢	$85.23	$43.9	-$41.32	50% 306-311 (617)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Timberwolvesavg 75¢	$33.75	$37.35	+$3.6	54% 1122-947 (2069)
PA Pan9X<$100	Timberwolvesavg 71.9¢	$35.96	$36	+$0.04	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 26.5¢	$36.08	$32.64	-$3.44	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 25¢	$1.75	$1.68	-$0.07	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.25	-$0.2	46% 1805-2097 (3902)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.2	-$0.05	49% 1475-1523 (2998)

RN1

Timberwolves

Invested

$244.73

Value

$276.98

PnL

+$32.25

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

6512395314597884

Timberwolves

Invested

$134.71

Value

$133.98

PnL

-$0.73

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

38791873984189

Timberwolves

Invested

$97.23

Value

$112.67

PnL

+$15.44

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Anon455CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$85.23

Value

$43.9

PnL

-$41.32

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$33.75

Value

$37.35

PnL

+$3.6

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Pan9X<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$35.96

Value

$36

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$36.08

Value

$32.64

PnL

-$3.44

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

suntoriCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.2

Record

46%

1805-2097 (3902)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Timberwolves 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.