Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (81%). 3 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 251.5

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (23%) · Over at 20¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over20¢Under80¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 23%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 19.5¢

-63% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 13 top traders (23%)Underdog side (market favors Under 81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over20%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,305

Combined PnL+$579.31

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares7,246

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Under — 77%Over — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 47¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$110.54	51% 528-501 (1029)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Overavg 52.9¢	$3.7K	$1.4K	$-2.3K	28% 48-122 (170)
AN Anon455	Underavg 47.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$82.49	49% 430-445 (875)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 47¢	$502.87	$657.25	+$254.78	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
VE Venusian	Underavg 46¢	$70.1	$121.15	+$51.05	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 82¢	$100.34	$100.74	+$0.4	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 47¢	$103.4	$83	+$78	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$82.29	$76.2	-$6.1	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 49¢	$66.07	$67.42	+$1.35	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$42.6	$43.2	+$0.6	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$14.72	$24.53	+$9.81	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$7.1	$7.2	+$0.1	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 46¢	$0.94	$0.95	+$0.01	38% 1308-2106 (3414)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$1,814.69

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$110.54

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

luckycat888888CTR

Over

Invested

$3,723.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

28%

48-122 (170)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$1,045.43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$82.49

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$502.87

Value

$657.25

PnL

+$254.78

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$70.1

Value

$121.15

PnL

+$51.05

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$100.34

Value

$100.74

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$103.4

Value

$83

PnL

+$78

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$82.29

Value

$76.2

PnL

-$6.1

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$66.07

Value

$67.42

PnL

+$1.35

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$42.6

Value

$43.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.72

Value

$24.53

PnL

+$9.81

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.1

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$0.94

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.01

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 13 top traders (23%)Underdog side (market favors Under 81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.