Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 6 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 247.5

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 45¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$36.93

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 45¢

-9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,347

Combined PnL-$65.75

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,365

Combined PnL+$28.82

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 41.4¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	+$124.07	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$92.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$387.28	$390.61	+$31.83
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 52.8¢	$2.6K	$1.0K	-$6.55	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 53.6¢	$582.12	$517.77	-$64.35	49% 430-445 (875)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 61¢	$387.24	$360.61	-$26.63	51% 528-501 (1029)
VE Venusian	Underavg 42.7¢	$275.88	$339.06	+$63.18	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 41.4¢	$180.34	$172.23	-$8.11	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 39.9¢	$129.09	$127.94	-$1.15	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
LI Limousin	Underavg 41.5¢	$130.66	$124.4	-$6.26	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$68.77	$76.86	+$8.09	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 42¢	$67.7	$73.58	+$5.88	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$40.32	$48	+$7.68
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.5¢	$27.38	$25.58	-$1.8
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 51¢	$48.14	$49.1	+$0.96	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 49¢	$38.09	$43.14	+$5.05	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$36.26	$40.53	+$13.57	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$48.3	$36.8	-$11.5	65% 668-360 (1028)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$21	$16	-$5	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 49¢	$5.1	$5.41	+$0.31	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 41¢	$12.3	$3.5	+$1.46	50% 1827-1860 (3687)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,910.07

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$124.07

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Over$1,248.8241.4¢+$92.24

Under$387.2855¢+$31.83

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$2,644.28

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$6.55

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$582.12

Value

$517.77

PnL

-$64.35

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$387.24

Value

$360.61

PnL

-$26.63

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$275.88

Value

$339.06

PnL

+$63.18

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$180.34

Value

$172.23

PnL

-$8.11

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$129.09

Value

$127.94

PnL

-$1.15

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$130.66

Value

$124.4

PnL

-$6.26

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.77

Value

$76.86

PnL

+$8.09

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Under

Invested

$67.7

Value

$73.58

PnL

+$5.88

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Both legs:

Invested

$48.14

Value

$49.1

PnL

+$0.96

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$38.09

Value

$43.14

PnL

+$5.05

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.26

Value

$40.53

PnL

+$13.57

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.3

Value

$36.8

PnL

-$11.5

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21

Value

$16

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.41

PnL

+$0.31

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$12.3

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$1.46

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.