Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (59%) · Over at 54¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over54¢Under46¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 59%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$122.24

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 53.5¢

-13% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares7,336

Combined PnL+$674.27

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,882

Combined PnL-$552.03

Over — 59%Under — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 70.2¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$299.05	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
AN Anon455	Overavg 54.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$75.63	49% 430-445 (875)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 52.1¢	$2.6K	$952.38	+$734.01	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$784.86	$557.04	-$227.81	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 45¢	$450	$485	+$35	40% 632-954 (1586)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$660.19	$480.78	-$179.41	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 53.4¢	$305.67	$443.46	+$137.79	51% 528-501 (1029)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 46¢	$481	$350.29	-$130.71	45% 140-171 (311)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 41.8¢	$244.15	$195.8	-$48.35	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 54.6¢	$60.44	$68.66	+$8.22	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 60¢	$60	$59.5	-$0.5	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 54.9¢	$130.41	$59.23	+$9.64	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$45	$44.5	-$0.5	65% 668-360 (1028)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 76.9¢	$38.5	$33.54	-$4.96	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 53.8¢	$66.64	$32.88	+$13.68	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$18	$17.75	-$0.25	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.45	-$0.2	46% 877-1050 (1927)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,403.09

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$299.05

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$1,208.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$75.63

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$2,579.37

Value

$952.38

PnL

+$734.01

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$784.86

Value

$557.04

PnL

-$227.81

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$450

Value

$485

PnL

+$35

Record

40%

632-954 (1586)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$660.19

Value

$480.78

PnL

-$179.41

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$305.67

Value

$443.46

PnL

+$137.79

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$481

Value

$350.29

PnL

-$130.71

Record

45%

140-171 (311)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$244.15

Value

$195.8

PnL

-$48.35

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$60.44

Value

$68.66

PnL

+$8.22

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$60

Value

$59.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$130.41

Value

$59.23

PnL

+$9.64

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45

Value

$44.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$38.5

Value

$33.54

PnL

-$4.96

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$66.64

Value

$32.88

PnL

+$13.68

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.2

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.