Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 84¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over84¢Under16¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$653.56

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 83.5¢

+57% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,775

Combined PnL+$771.81

Under4 traders

Total Value$875.15

Total Shares1,737

Combined PnL-$118.26

Over — 71%Under — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 69.4¢	$830.07	$887.84	+$136.21	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 72¢	$720	$775	+$55	51% 528-501 (1029)
AN Anon455	Overavg 28¢	$298.36	$747.71	+$449.34	49% 430-445 (875)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 60.6¢	$238.36	$287.07	+$48.72	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 77.1¢	$829.53	$194.31	+$121.1	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 64¢	$51.57	$51.98	+$0.4	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$66	$47	-$19	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 34.5¢	$110.15	$30.35	-$79.8	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 44.8¢	$97.26	$22.8	-$74.46	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 65¢	$15.53	$17.44	+$1.91	46% 877-1050 (1927)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 27¢	$3.65	$11.52	+$7.87	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 44¢	$5	$9.35	+$4.35	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 58¢	$5.8	$7.65	+$1.85	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 22¢	$2.2	$2.25	+$0.05	47% 3551-3935 (7486)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$830.07

Value

$887.84

PnL

+$136.21

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$720

Value

$775

PnL

+$55

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$298.36

Value

$747.71

PnL

+$449.34

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$238.36

Value

$287.07

PnL

+$48.72

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$829.53

Value

$194.31

PnL

+$121.1

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$51.57

Value

$51.98

PnL

+$0.4

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66

Value

$47

PnL

-$19

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$110.15

Value

$30.35

PnL

-$79.8

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$97.26

Value

$22.8

PnL

-$74.46

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$15.53

Value

$17.44

PnL

+$1.91

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$3.65

Value

$11.52

PnL

+$7.87

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$4.35

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$5.8

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$1.85

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.