Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over95¢Under5¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$812.53

Smart Money Entry

66.2¢ → 94.5¢

+43% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over95%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,086

Combined PnL-$11.49

Under2 traders

Total Value$50.62

Total Shares589

Combined PnL+$824.02

Over — 78%Under — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 66.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$57.76	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 57.2¢	$679.8	$578.54	-$101.26	49% 430-445 (875)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$316.92	$347.1	+$30.18
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.2¢	$362.88	$231.44	-$131.45
VE Venusian	Overavg 46¢	$62.98	$106.11	+$43.13	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 85.9¢	$69.16	$64.91	-$4.26	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 91¢	$49.3	$49.85	+$0.54	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 5¢	$1.7K	$38.92	+$825.06	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 42¢	$6.51	$12.01	+$5.5	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 68.6¢	$12.74	$11.7	-$1.04	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
RN1<$100	Overavg 92¢	$11.24	$11.36	+$0.12	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 91¢	$39.13	$5.36	+$1.23	50% 1827-1860 (3687)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,849.2

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$57.76

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$679.8

Value

$578.54

PnL

-$101.26

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

Both legs:

Over$316.9258¢+$30.18

Under$362.8857.2¢-$131.45

Venusian

Over

Invested

$62.98

Value

$106.11

PnL

+$43.13

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$69.16

Value

$64.91

PnL

-$4.26

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$49.3

Value

$49.85

PnL

+$0.54

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$1,651.95

Value

$38.92

PnL

+$825.06

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$6.51

Value

$12.01

PnL

+$5.5

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.74

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$1.04

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$11.24

Value

$11.36

PnL

+$0.12

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$39.13

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$1.23

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.