Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 49¢ · $393 held · ends Nov 15

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$392.92

Combined PnL

-$0.49

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 48.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$270.87

Total Shares596

Combined PnL-$0.24

Over2 traders

Total Value$122.05

Total Shares230

Combined PnL-$0.24

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 45¢	$211.16	$211.16	-$0	37% 55-95 (150)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53¢	$115.63	$115.63	-$0	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$48.25	$48.25	-$0	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$24.37	$11.45	-$0.24	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 55¢	$6.66	$6.42	-$0.24	46% 2852-3388 (6240)

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$211.16

Value

$211.16

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

55-95 (150)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$115.63

Value

$115.63

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.25

Value

$48.25

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.37

Value

$11.45

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$6.66

Value

$6.42

PnL

-$0.24

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.