Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (50%) · Cavaliers at 87¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 15

Cavaliers87¢Mavericks13¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

-$267.08

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 86.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers87%

Mavericks14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers6 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares14,820

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Mavericks6 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares13,862

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Cavaliers — 50%Mavericks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Cavaliersavg 84.8¢	$9.6K	$6.2K	$-3.4K	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
TA takeormakeCTR	Mavericksavg 16¢	$2.4K	$5.1K	+$2.7K	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Cavaliersavg 54.9¢	$1.6K	$2.7K	+$1.0K	51% 528-501 (1029)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Mavericksavg 24.4¢	$1.6K	$404.05	+$3.08	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 63.3¢	$293.04	$284.81	-$8.23	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 63.3¢	$215.13	$227.68	+$12.55
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 45¢	$77.92	$57.14	-$20.78
LI LightParadoxCTR	Mavericksavg 42.4¢	$184.95	$246.49	+$61.54	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
RN1	Cavaliersavg 90¢	$225	$226.25	+$1.25	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Mavericksavg 45.1¢	$875.87	$213.51	-$662.36	46% 558-656 (1214)
SU suntori<$100	Cavaliersavg 56¢	$65.71	$81.27	+$26.52	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
38 38791873984189<$100	Cavaliersavg 54¢	$71.63	$72.54	+$0.9	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cavaliersavg 80.2¢	$76.59	$53.87	+$4.38	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
LI LimousinCTR	Mavericksavg 43.3¢	$110.03	$30.51	-$79.52	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 37¢	$10.67	$4.61	-$6.05	38% 1183-1919 (3102)

Flaznorp

Cavaliers

Invested

$9,589.83

Value

$6.2K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

takeormakeCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$2,393.72

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,648.47

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$1,556.65

Value

$404.05

PnL

+$3.08

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$293.04

Value

$284.81

PnL

-$8.23

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$215.1363.3¢+$12.55

Mavericks$77.9245¢-$20.78

LightParadoxCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$184.95

Value

$246.49

PnL

+$61.54

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

RN1

Cavaliers

Invested

$225

Value

$226.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$875.87

Value

$213.51

PnL

-$662.36

Record

46%

558-656 (1214)

suntori<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$65.71

Value

$81.27

PnL

+$26.52

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

38791873984189<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$71.63

Value

$72.54

PnL

+$0.9

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Pan9X<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$76.59

Value

$53.87

PnL

+$4.38

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

LimousinCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$110.03

Value

$30.51

PnL

-$79.52

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$10.67

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$6.05

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.