Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 84¢ · $704 held · ended Nov 15

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$703.71

Combined PnL

$9.36

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 83.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$647.61

Total Shares757

Combined PnL+$15.44

Over3 traders

Total Value$55.54

Total Shares197

Combined PnL-$6.08

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 82.7¢	$364	$376.2	+$12.2	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 84¢	$177.24	$180.64	+$3.4	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 84.3¢	$54.61	$55.37	+$0.76	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 23.3¢	$39.58	$32.88	-$6.69	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 81¢	$25.11	$23.56	-$1.55	66% 803-421 (1224)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$15.95	$16.71	+$0.76	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 81¢	$8.51	$8.99	+$0.48	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$6.1	$5.95	-$0.15	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 73¢	$2.7	$2.85	+$0.15	39% 1738-2713 (4451)

RN1

Under

Invested

$364

Value

$376.2

PnL

+$12.2

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$177.24

Value

$180.64

PnL

+$3.4

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$54.61

Value

$55.37

PnL

+$0.76

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.58

Value

$32.88

PnL

-$6.69

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$25.11

Value

$23.56

PnL

-$1.55

Record

66%

803-421 (1224)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.95

Value

$16.71

PnL

+$0.76

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$8.51

Value

$8.99

PnL

+$0.48

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.1

Value

$5.95

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.